Who will win big at this Sunday’s Grammy Awards? Here are my picks

Here’s a hint: Put your money on Lizzo and Billie Eilish

The 62nd annual Grammy Awards are coming up this Sunday!

Ordinarily, this would be cause for celebration. This year, however, is a bit different. The big-ticket event, celebrating the best music of the year, is currently mired in controversy with accusations of rape and rigged voting. It would not be surprising to hear that the majority of Americans, their expectations soured, decided not to watch. Yet, the Grammy Awards remains one of the biggest musical events of the year, and rigged or not, is still an important international stage for many musical acts. Is it stale? Yes. Are awards shows a dying breed? Absolutely. Will I still watch? Of course. I’m rooting for some of my favorite artists to walk away winners. Forget the Super Bowl; this is my big year-end championship. That said, it’s important to acknowledge the horrifying accusations being leveled at the Recording Academy, the way they fit into the #MeToo movement, and the extremely troubling history of the music industry as a whole, which has constantly sidelined, abused and exploited marginalized communities.

One bright side of this year’s crop of nominees is that after all is said on done on Sunday night, it’s entirely possible that the majority of winners will be women. If Lizzo walks away a big winner, then a loud, proud black woman will be front and center. In the face of controversy and a climate of atmospheric cultural change, a slate of female winners could signal a positive shift toward lasting change in the industry. Maybe, just maybe, this industry needs these pioneering artists, forging their own paths and making waves, to shake things up and say “This is how it’s going to be. We’re in charge now.” It’s a lofty dream in a notoriously male-controlled industry… but it doesn’t hurt to dream.

Below, I’ve tackled some of the biggest awards of the night and predicted who I think might win. I haven’t covered every award possible; I just don’t have any skin in the game for some categories, so I’ve stuck to the ones I know. Even then, some of these categories are sure to be close races, and it was incredibly difficult to predict the winners. In fact, there’s so much talent just within the categories for Record, Song and Album of the Year that it feels unlikely that one artist will sweep the major categories on her own. With that in mind, I tried my best to spread the love around when making calls… But I’m sure to be wrong on a few. My heart wants Lizzo and H.E.R. to win every award, but my brain knows that Billie Eilish made a huge splash last year and certainly deserves some of the Grammy glory.

Take a look below and let me know what you think about my picks!

Record of the Year

• “Hey, Ma” — Bon Iver
• “Bad Guy” — Billie Eilish
• “7 rings” — Ariana Grande
• “Hard Place” — H.E.R.
• “Talk” — Khalid
• “Old Town Road” — Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus
• {{ “Truth Hurts” — Lizzo }}
• “Sunflower” — Post Malone & Swae Lee

How do you pick a winner when this category is packed full of certified hits? Do you pick the song that had the biggest cultural impact, or the song that, ultimately, you think was the best-written, best-produced song of the year? I opted for the former simply because Lizzo’s “Truth Hurts” was a truly huge moment this year. Lizzo is a critical darling and a mainstream icon at this point, so it only seems natural that she take the trophy for “Record of Year” (for a two-year-old song no less!) It’s also one of the biggest awards of the night, so I highly doubt Khalid, Post Malone, or Bon Iver stand a chance. Sorry, guys — the ladies have this one handled.

Song of the Year

• “Always Remember Us This Way” — Lady Gaga (From “A Star Is Born”)
• “Bad Guy” — Billie Eilish
• “Bring My Flowers Now” — Tanya Tucker
• {{ “Hard Place” — H.E.R. }}
• “Lover” — Taylor Swift
• “Norman F***ing Rockwell” — Lana Del Rey
• “Someone You Loved” — Lewis Capaldi
• “Truth Hurts” — Lizzo

Unlike Record of the Year, which honors everyone who worked on a track, Song of the Year is intended to focus on achievements in songwriting specifically. For that reason, H.E.R. gets my vote for this one. “Hard Place” is a great song and deserves some credit in this category — and it would appear that the Academy is a big fan of H.E.R. based on last year’s awards. This category feels like a wildcard, though; any of these eight artists could conceivably walk away a winner on Sunday.

Album of the Year

• “I, I” — Bon Iver
• “Norman F***cking Rockwell” — Lana Del Rey
• {{ “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” — Billie Eilish }}
• “Thank U, Next” — Ariana Grande
• “I Used to Know Her” — H.E.R.
• “7” — Lil Nas X
• “Cuz I Love You (Deluxe)” — Lizzo
• “Father of the Bride” — Vampire Weekend

It’s hard to imagine that Billie Eilish or H.E.R. won’t walk away with this one. While Ariana Grande is talented and hugely popular, she isn’t exactly known for winning Grammy awards. My bet for this year is Billie Eilish — purely because H.E.R. took home a handful of awards last year, and another sweep seems unlikely. Eilish made a huge cultural splash with her debut album in 2019, and it would only make sense for the Academy to recognize that achievement. She’s been a huge, immediate hit with audiences young and old, and that usually fares well at awards like these.

Best New Artist

• Black Pumas
• {{ Billie Eilish }}
• Lil Nas X
• Lizzo
• Maggie Rogers
• Rosalía
• Tank and the Bangas
• Yola

This category also seems like a shoe-in for Eilish. While Lizzo is likely the only other contender, this award often goes to new, unproven artists who arrive on the scene out of nowhere and make a huge splash. Lizzo has been around for a while and has proven that she’s here to stay, but Eilish is brand-new. My guess is that the Academy will honor her with Best New Artist for coming onto the scene so strongly right off the bat.

Best Pop Solo Performance

• “Spirit” — Beyoncé
• “Bad Guy” — Billie Eilish
• “7 Rings” — Ariana Grande
• “Truth Hurts” — Lizzo
• “You Need to Calm Down” — Taylor Swift

Can we rename this award “Battle of the Divas”? This is a who’s who of pop music in 2019, and picking a “clear” winner feels akin to matricide. The Academy might throw this one to Taylor as a courtesy, but this year’s awards really just feel like the Lizzo and Billie Eilish show. For that reason, I think Eilish will win this one. “Truth Hurts” might be a little too hip-hop for the Academy members to consider it “pop,” while “Bad Guy” defied all expectations to redefine what an alt-pop hit can sound like in 2019.

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

• “Boyfriend” — Ariana Grande & Social House
• “Sucker” — Jonas Brothers
• {{ “Old Town Road” — Lil Nas X }}
• “Sunflower” — Post Malone & Swae Lee
• “Señorita” — Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello

Is this Jonas Bros’ year? Or might it be Lil Nas X’s moment to shine on the awards circuit? Let’s hope for a moment that this award doesn’t go to “Señorita” (sorry, Shawn!) and instead cross our fingers that Lil Nas X comes out on top this time around. There’s no denying the huge moment that Lil Nas X had this year, and while a song that garnered its initial fame on TikTok doesn’t quite feel like a natural fit for the Grammys, I think this award is an opportunity for the Academy to throw Lil Nas X a bone. Plus: How great would it be for Billy Ray Cyrus to return to the Grammys stage 27 years after his first nomination and finally nab a win?

Best Dance/Electronic Album

• {{ “LP5” — Apparat }}
• “No Geography” — The Chemical Brothers
• “Hi This is Flume (Mixtape)” — Flume
• “Solace” — Rüfüs du Sol
• “Weather” — Tycho feat. Saint Sinner

This one is wishful thinking on my part, but I wholeheartedly hope Apparat wins this one. He’s been bubbling under for years, and it’s high time he gets some recognition for his masterful and innovative work. He’s not an obvious winner by any means and has never won nor been nominated before. As the dark horse in this year’s race, it would be an incredible surprise and a much-deserved honor for the German artist with a true knack for ambient electronica.

Best R&B Performance

• “Love Again” — Daniel Caesar & Brandy
• {{ “Could’ve Been” — H.E.R. feat. Bryson Tiller }}
• “Exactly How I Feel” — Lizzo feat. Gucci Mane
• “Roll Some Mo” — Lucky Daye
• “Come Home” — Anderson Paak feat. André 3000

Ignoring for a moment that no one but Lucky Daye gets to fly solo on this one, it’s hard not to acknowledge the amount of talent in this category. Daniel Caesar is justly deserving of a Grammy, but it feels like an unlikely choice given Lizzo and H.E.R.’s domination thus far. If I had to bet, I’d say H.E.R. has a good shot at this one because of the next category…

Best Urban Contemporary Album

• “Apollo XXI” — Steve Lacy
• {{ “Cuz I Love You (Deluxe)” — Lizzo }}
• “Overload” — Georgia Anne Muldrow
• “Saturn” — Nao
• “Being Human in Public” — Jessie Reyez

This is Lizzo’s award to win, hands down. “Cuz I Love” you is a monumental collection of perfectly crafted pop/hip-hop/R&B, and even if Lizzo doesn’t walk away with any of the major awards, I think this one will be hers no matter what.

Tune into the Grammys this Sunday at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT on CBS.